The official explanation for Mr. Hu Jintao’s removal from the last meeting of the 20th National Party Congress is that he wasn’t feeling well, so an usher assisted him in getting out of his chair and walking out of the Great Hall of the People.*
But that explanation seems contrary to the appearances that anyone can see on the numerous You Tube videos of the event. So I offer a different interpretation.
Hu Jintao was once the most powerful man in China. He was the Communist Party General Secretary from 2002 to 2012. At the same time he was the President of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and he was the civilian Commander in Chief of the Chinese military.
Then between 2012 and 2013 all these offices were given to Xi Jinping in a peaceful transfer of power.
Xi Jinping was made the Party leader because he was acceptable to the two major factions in Chinese politics. These are the “Radicals” and the “Liberals.”
The Radicals are the pro-Maoist hardliners. They want a return to more government control over the economy and society.
I use the term “Liberal” in the British sense of favoring more individual liberty, including more freedom for political speech, less government involvement in the economy, and hence more tolerance for social and economic inequality (i.e., class hierarchy).
The line between the two orientations is not bright and clear. There is a lot of agreement and overlap of views. It’s not like the MAGA Republicans vs the BLM Democrats in the US today.
The leading figure on the Radical side is Jiang Zemin. He was the General Secretary of the CCP just before Mr. Hu, from 1989 to 2002. While his economic policies contributed to the boom in the Chinese economy, his belief in the need for strong government control of society resulted in the abuse of human rights, such as with his suppression of the Falun Gong. It was the Radicals who carried out the brutal suppression of protesters in Tiananmen Square in 1989, just prior to Mr. Jiang taking office.
His transfer of power to Hu Jintao in 2002 was complicated by his refusal to give up his position in the civilian control of the military, and he was able to keep a majority of his allies on the Politburo Standing Committee. Thus, the transition was not really complete until 2004 when Jiang finally gave Mr. Hu full control of the top Party offices.
Hu Jintao is considered the leading figure on the Liberal side. He and his supporters tend more towards less government control and more openness in the economy and society. Many members of the Communist Youth League, with over 80M members, favor the Liberal view. Perhaps the increase of corruption during his 10 years as Party leader was due, in part, to his lax control of society.
The Deal
Unlike Jiang, Hu Jintao peacefully transferred all of his positions in the Party to Xi Jinping in 2012. Some observers of Chinese politics say that this full transference of power was due, in part, to a deal between Hu and Xi. It may be that, in exchange for the peaceful transfer of power, Xi agreed that when he stepped down after two terms, he would support Hu’s preferred candidates as his replacement. Also, the custom at the time was for Party officials to grant significant deference to the personnel choices of their elders.
One of Hu’s preferred candidates was Li Keqiang, then a member of the Politburo Standing Committee and Vice-Premier of the PRC. In line with the deal, and because of his talent, during Xi’s tenure, Mr. Li quickly rose to the level of the Premier of the PRC, which heads the Executive branch of government.
That understanding between Xi and Hu was made in 2012. But by 2022 Xi had changed his mind. First, he decided that he wanted a third term as leader of the Communist Party. Secondly, he decided that he no longer wanted to work with Liberals, like Li Keqiang. Apparently, Xi Jinping felt that he was getting more friction from the Liberals than he was from the Radicals as he pursued his policy of rejuvenating China.
Xi Jinping wants to use more state involvement in the economy so that he can pursue his program of lowering the income gap between rich and poor. He wants to work on bringing about more “common prosperity.” And he wants to reduce poverty in both the rural and urban areas as much as he can.
Because the Liberals favor more of an open market in the economy, Xi worried that they might not be implementing his policies with the kind of enthusiasm he expected.
However, Xi Jinping does not have the power to simply fire high level Party officers like Li Keqiang. There has to be a vote by the Party Congress to decide which Party members will be eligible for the top positions in the Party.
The 20th National Party Congress of the CCP
The top position in the CCP, after the General Secretary, is the 7 member Standing Committee of the Politburo. Then the 25 member Politburo. And then the 205 member Central Committee. Once the Central Committee is elected, those people choose who will be in the Politburo and its Standing Committee.
A Party Congress is held every five years. The 20th Congress was held from October 16th to October 22d this year, 2022. Among the many items on its agenda was to approve a third term for Xi Jinping, and to elect a new Central Committee, the broadest governing body of the CCP.
On the last day of the 20th Party Congress the 2300 delegates would take two votes. In the morning they would vote as to who would be among the 205 candidates for the Central Committee. This would be by secret ballot.
Then during the lunch break, the Congress managers would count the votes, print the list of winners, put the list in a red folder, and then place one folder on the bench in front of each delegate’s seat. After lunch, the delegates would look at the list and make a final vote to approve it.
The delegates understood that when they came back from lunch they were to sit in front of their red folder, but not open it until instructed to do so.
That’s when the problems began.
Hu Jintao didn’t want to wait. While he had once thought that Xi Jinping would only serve two terms as Party chief, in recent months he had heard the speculation that Xi was maneuvering behind the scenes to secure a third term. After his expectation of two terms was dashed when the Congress approved a third term for Xi, the next big worry would be whether the candidates Mr. Xi had agreed to support, in their deal of 10 years ago, would be on the list of winners, and therefore be in the 205 member Central Committee.
Maybe during lunch he had heard the rumor that NONE of the Liberals who had once held high office in Xi’s administration would be on that list. He surely thought that this could not be true because in the morning vote there were the names of some of the leading Liberals on the candidate list.
Mr. Hu wanted to know right away whether, after the votes were counted, any of his preferred people were elected to be on the Central Committee.
Of course, the rumors were true. None of the leading Liberals were on the winner’s list. The person most likely to succeed Xi Jinping, Li Keqiang, no longer had any leadership position in the Party. He had suddenly been demoted to an ordinary member.
Xi Jinping knew who was, and was not, on the list. But he expected Hu to follow the protocol of sitting still in your seat, until the Congress was called upon to act, such as for a vote.
Mr. Hu began to cause a commotion when he disregarded Li Zhanshu’s cautioning against opening his folder in violation of the protocol. When Xi Jinping saw the disturbance, he understood where it could lead. He knew that if Hu Jintao saw none of the names he wanted to see, then Mr. Hu might publicly protest. He might demand a new vote. He might call for his allies there in the Great Hall of the People to join his protest.
So, in order to keep the peace and the appearance of Party Harmony, Mr. Xi had Mr. Hu forcefully removed from the room. This was a spontaneous, not a planned, event.
Conclusion
After Mr. Hu was escorted out of the room, a final up or down vote was called to approve the list of winners.
Not surprisingly, the list passed unanimously, with no abstentions or negative votes, but with one empty seat next to Xi Jinping.
@InterpretivePo1
*The official statement about Mr. Hu, made on Twitter, by China Xinhua News, “When he was not feeling well during the session, his staff, for his health, accompanied him to a room next to the meeting venue for a rest. Now, he is much better.” Oct 22, 2022. @XHNews
https://mobile.twitter.com/XHNews/status/1583829975932997637
References
For press accounts see,
What Happened to Hu Jintao? Agnes Chang, Vivian Wang, Isabelle Qian, and Ang Li.
The New York Times. Oct. 27, 2022
“The party’s top leaders and retired elders historically have a great deal of influence over the selection. … It’s far from evident that Mr. Hu’s exit was planned. … The new lineup of top officials unveiled the next day excluded … three perceived protégés of Mr. Hu … [China’s premier Li Keqiang, Wang Yang and Hu Chunhua]”
New video reveals why China’s ex-prez Hu Jintao was escorted out of CPC Congress
C Krishnasai. WION News. Beijing Oct 26, 2022
“It looks like China’s former president Hu Jintao was whisked away from the stage at a key Communist party meeting in Beijing because he was arguing about some official papers”
There are no sources that I know of which directly confirm or contradict my interpretation. But there are numerous commentators on You Tube who have looked closely at the various videos of Mr. Hu being removed, and who reject the official explanation that Hu was not feeling well. Indeed, he may have been feeling a sharp pain in his back!
For a variety of videos and interesting commentary, search You Tube for, “Hu Jintao Removed.”
I have found most of the articles in Wikipedia, on China’s history, politics, and leaders to be excellent places to begin research on these subjects.
Some videos show a shaken Mr. Hu stop to say something to Xi Jinping as he is being escorted away. This is reminiscent of a scene in the Godfather, when Sal Tessio speaks his last words to Tom Hagen.
Comments
Post a Comment